Greece gets Smyrna, Thrace, and Constantinople in alternate Sevres

Say after WWI, the allies decide to just give Smyrna, Thrace, and Constantinople to Greece instead of doing the whole zones of influence thing. There's population exchange as required. Can this be sustained? What happens to the Greek Orthodox Church in such a scenario anyway?
 
Say after WWI, the allies decide to just give Smyrna, Thrace, and Constantinople to Greece instead of doing the whole zones of influence thing. There's population exchange as required. Can this be sustained? What happens to the Greek Orthodox Church in such a scenario anyway?

In a best case scenario, the Greeks lose everything in Asia Minor and Britain and France are forced to intervene before the Turkish army marches to Constantinople and forces the two to go for peace negotiations. The Turks are better armed than the Greeks, supplied by both the Italians and the USSR.

Athens won't be so populated compared to IOTL if the Greeks manage to retain Constantinople and Thrace.
 
All hail the nation of West Turkey and its Greek Minority that thought they'd still run the place.
 
I could see Greeks retaining Thrace and Constantinople anything more
would need extreme ethnic cleansing.
I don't think the powers would allow such a thing so the best Greece could get is Thrace and under circumstances Constantinople since they would be easier to defend than anything in minor Asia.
 
All hail the nation of West Turkey and its Greek Minority that thought they'd still run the place.

...you do realize that both Thrace and Smyrna were roughly 50/50 in terms of Greek/Turkish population, right? From a purely demographic point of view, both sides had an equal claim at those territories.
 
...you do realize that both Thrace and Smyrna were roughly 50/50 in terms of Greek/Turkish population, right? From a purely demographic point of view, both sides had an equal claim at those territories.

That's incredibly debatable because of the way ethnicity is fluid in the former Ottoman Empire. Is a greek simply someone who speaks Greek or is he also Christian? That alone is pretty important since there are still to this day fiercely loyal Muslim Greeks in the area around Izmir and Thrace. Also are Greeks a real half and half split or is it plurality greek/turkish, because that could also tip the scale one way or another.
 
Say after WWI, the allies decide to just give Smyrna, Thrace, and Constantinople to Greece instead of doing the whole zones of influence thing. There's population exchange as required. Can this be sustained? What happens to the Greek Orthodox Church in such a scenario anyway?
It doesn't matter what more the treaty alots to Greece. Unless the Allies guarantee these holdings with military help, all conditions are set so that the the Turks still successfully revolt before a population exchange can come into effect...
 
...you do realize that both Thrace and Smyrna were roughly 50/50 in terms of Greek/Turkish population, right? From a purely demographic point of view, both sides had an equal claim at those territories.
Except they weren't. Adrianople was the area in which the Greeks had the highest population, and even here they were outnumbered by Muslims. Constantinople had a Muslim majority by this time and Smyrna had a solid Muslim majority. The cities themselves tended to be a bit more equal but the countryside was quite solidly Muslim (source). So you have the Greeks holding territory that is mainly populated by people who are hostile, and with the Turkish nationalists gaining strength in the inland of Anatolia. The chances of them holding Smyrna are practically nil, and they could only hold Constantinople and Thrace by mass ethnic cleansing, which would ensure a permanently hostile Turkish state that may grow in terms of power vis-a-vis the Greek state. An unenviable situation to say the least.
 
Except they weren't. Adrianople was the area in which the Greeks had the highest population, and even here they were outnumbered by Muslims. Constantinople had a Muslim majority by this time and Smyrna had a solid Muslim majority. The cities themselves tended to be a bit more equal but the countryside was quite solidly Muslim (source). So you have the Greeks holding territory that is mainly populated by people who are hostile, and with the Turkish nationalists gaining strength in the inland of Anatolia. The chances of them holding Smyrna are practically nil, and they could only hold Constantinople and Thrace by mass ethnic cleansing, which would ensure a permanently hostile Turkish state that may grow in terms of power vis-a-vis the Greek state. An unenviable situation to say the least.

Nassirisimo,

Ethnic cleansing meant nothing those days,count the five million Armenians,Anatolian Greeks,Christian Syrians etc that the Turks massacred from 1915 to 1918 that it was conveniently forgot by the powers in order to serve real politic until recently...Greeks would kick out the Turks from Eastern Thrace(that was already given to them OTL up to the lines of Tsaltatza that protected the perimetre of Constantinople).Greek naval squadron and military contigents were in Constantinople as part of the occupation forces already.

You may forget that the Greek fleet, that was substantial those days,would make the straights of Dardanelles impassable for the Turks;for the same reason the Turks could not approach the perimetre of Smyrna under the control of naval artillery form the Greek battleships in the port of Smyrna,that is when the Turks made an army again(if they did...)

Also,there would have been no reason for the 1920 elections since PM Venizelos was all powerful and would have sent home the veterans of the Balcan wars and substitute them with new blood from Thrace and Smyrna area;the 1st army corps stationed in Thrace as the army reserve would not need to go to Crimea to fight against the Bolsheviks and probably the fleet would occupy Trebizont(Trapezous) and Sinope in Pontus which had substantial Greek populations.That would be in my opinion the first actions of Venizelos and would as a consequence deprive the Turks of Lenin's assistance later...

Did you say something about "hostile Turkish state" to the Greeks?why?Have the Turks ever been anything else but hostile to the Greeks? and don't forget that a Greek military presence in Pontus would help greately the fifteen million Kurds in Turky who had already raised the claim for their independence from Turkey...so any Turkish movement against the Greeks would raise claims of the Armenians about their property and reparations for the victims of the Armenian genocide by the Turks...it would be done anyway,something the British were trying to avoid...
 
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Nassirisimo,

Ethnic cleansing meant nothing those days,count the five million Armenians,Anatolian Greeks,Christian Syrians etc that the Turks massacred from 1915 to 1918 that it was conveniently forgot by the powers in order to serve real politic until recently...Greeks would kick out the Turks from Eastern Thrace(that was already given to them OTL up to the lines of Tsaltatza that protected the perimetre of Constantinople).Greek naval squadron and military contigents were in Constantinople as part of the occupation forces already.

You may forget that the Greek fleet, that was substantial those days,would make the straights of Dardanelles impassable for the Turks;for the same reason the Turks could not approach the perimetre of Smyrna under the control of naval artillery form the Greek battleships in the port of Smyrna,that is when the Turks made an army again(if they did...)

Also,there would have been no reason for the 1920 elections since PM Venizelos was all powerful and would have sent home the veterans of the Balcan wars and substitute them with new blood from Thrace and Smyrna area;the 1st army corps stationed in Thrace as the army reserve would not need to go to Crimea to fight against the Bolsheviks and probably the fleet would occupy Trebizont(Trapezous) and Sinope in Pontus which had substantial Greek populations.That would be in my opinion the first actions of Venizelos and would as a consequence deprive the Turks of Lenin's assistance later...

Did you say something about "hostile Turkish state" to the Greeks?why?Have the Turks ever been anything else but hostile to the Greeks? and don't forget that a Greek military presence in Pontus would help greately the fifteen million Kurds in Turky who had already raised the claim for their independence from Turkey...so any Turkish movement against the Greeks would raise claims of the Armenians about their property and reparations for the victims of the Armenian genocide by the Turks...it would be done anyway,something the British were trying to avoid...
I don't get it.

The difference that the OP presents with OTL Treaty of Sèvres is 1) making the Greek annexation of Smyrna explicit and 2) alot Constatinople to Greece (which would presumably still be in the Allies' hand, mind).

What makes Greece victorious here? More prestige for Venizelos that carries on being PM and leads the army to victory up to Trabzon?
 
The city of Smyrna had either a Turkish plurality but Christian (Greek and Armenian) majority (George Horton), or outright Greek majority depending on the source (Henry Morgenthau & Trudy Ring). It was also a cosmopolitan city, with many thousands of Europeans, Americans and Jews, which backs up the numbers which indicate that a Turkish/Muslim plurality does not by itself imply a Turkish/Muslim majority. Outside the city, the Turks were the majority of course.

Nassirisimo, what you have cited is the Ottoman census of 1914, which cannot be accurate as (a) Greeks of the Minor Asia coast were already under persecution by the Ottoman state at the time and (b) it has inaccuracies, for example it underestimates the Greek population of Eastern Thrace by 35,000.


@OP, does the population exchange include Thrace and Constantinople as well? If so, we can assume that the OTL 1.2 million refugees stay in or go (depending on where they were before) to the newly acquired places instead of mainland Greece. Moreover, the 120,000 Greeks of Constantinople will stay where they are, however with a 1919 you don't get to save the victims of the Genocide. So, we're talking about 1.3 million Greeks in Eastern Thrace, Constantinople and Smyrna plus, roughly speaking, and according to the official census since that's what I have available at the moment, 130,000 Armenians and 95,000 Jews. 850,000 Muslims from Eastern Thrace and Smyrna would go to Turkey. Therefore, you're not going to see a depopulated Eastern Thrace or Smyrna, but a problematic demographically Northern Greece and a much smaller Athens, where refugees mostly went to OTL. However, I don't think Constantinople would be included in these arrangements, as its population would have dramatically dropped and an exception would be made so that, for example, a portion of Turks (up to half, I imagine) may remain there.

The problem is, the Smyrna zone was a very bad place for a defending army. Sooner or later, a new war will erupt and it will be impossible to defend all of it. Therefore, either only the city and a small perimeter around it should be given to Greece or it should be made an autonomous city under either Greek or Turkish sovereignty, kinda like Hong Kong.

As for the Church, it will see its influenced increased for a small amount of time, but diminshed long term. The gain of Constantinople will gain many points for the church but eventually, as per OTL, people will become less and less religious and more secularised. There would also be conflicts between the Church of Greece and the Patriarchate on matters of territorial jurisdiction.

As for how to actally get such a scenario, you need not just a Venizelos government, but a different negotiation of the Sevres Treaty. He should not have asked for the zone of Smyrna as I said above, but only the city itself and even that could be done away with. Since there would be concerns concerning the defensibility of the city, probably they can agree to create a demilitarized zone in a perimeter of, eg, 10-15kms, in exchange for a cap in the number number of Greek soldier in the city. With this concession, you can probably get the Allies to agree to different arrangements for Constantinople, provided they get enough assurances concerning demilitarization, free passage of the Dardanelles etc. Militarily, the Greek army stays in the city of Smyrna and defends a small perimeter around it with much fewer forces needed than OTL. In Constantinople, just land 1-2 divisions in the city just in case and patrol the Dardanelles with the Navy and Allied help.
 
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I started writing a time-line at one point where Venizelos does not resign 1915, instead the King abdicates and Greece joins the Entente.

This saves a larger part of the Serb army and allows Greece to occupy southern Albania.

Greek, Italian, Serb, French and British forces fight the Bulgarians, Germans, Ottomans and Austro-Hungarians in southern Serbia, Thrace and the Greek islands.

Greece is promised Turkish Thrace, Nicea, Smyrna and Constantinople along with plenty of supplies.

When White Russian Crimea collapses, the Russian Whites go to Constantinople and settle there, about 100 000 of them.

The Serbs/Yugoslavs, grateful for the support they got 1915 when they retreated into Greece, support Greek claims. The Greeks approve of Italian control of northern Albania. The Italians get into the war on the Greek side to enforce their demands, but lose against Atatürk, sour on the whole thing, suffers internal problems and might let the Greeks control Corfy and the Doecanese islands for a while, and the Greeks keep it (a point for severe friction after Mussolini takes over).

King Alexander does not die of a monkey bite and the Greeks continue to enjoy Entente support to enforce their demands on the new Turkish state. The British transfer the two seized Ottoman dreadnoughts to Greece to help when the Turks sink the Goeben/Yavuz that they by the peace treaty are required to hand over to the Greeks.

The Turks expel Greeks and some Armenian and Jews to the Greek areas, while the Greeks do the same with muslims, except some of them in Constantinople.

The British, after retaining basing rights, transfer Cyprus to Greece.

Greece thus ends up with;

Turkish Thrace
Constantinople
Nicea
Smyrna
Southern Albania
Cyprus
Corfu and the Doecadenese islands

They get most of the christians of Anatolia and some of the Jews, plus a total of about 150 000 white russian refugees, who sell their navy to the Greek state to pay to buy land and build estates and support themselves.

OTL, the white Russians went to Tunisia and spread out, some going to China, some to Yugoslavia, some to France, some to the USA.
 
Greece can get a better peace, but regarding territories they'd at most just get a larger chunk of Thrace. Constantiople, Anatolia and Imbros/ Tenedos is out of the picture. For that they'd need total victory, and I don't think they could achieve that.
 
Greece can get a better peace, but regarding territories they'd at most just get a larger chunk of Thrace. Constantiople, Anatolia and Imbros/ Tenedos is out of the picture. For that they'd need total victory, and I don't think they could achieve that.

You don't explain who is going to contest the occupation of Imbros and Tenedos as well as Constantinople from the Greeks? the non-existent Turkish navy or the non-existent Turkish army? Kemal was trying to reorganize the Turkish army at that time in the east and without the Communist arms his army would have been very small,unable to carry out operations in Ionia and of course without navy they were unable to operate in Europe.if the Allies give Constantinople to the Greeks there is no way that the Turks could claim it by force!

Romanos,

I have certain problem with your numbers,because the area of Ionia had 403 Greek bishoprics serving two million Greeks.The numbers come from the archives of the Church of Greece/ Archbishop's see in Athens and have been published in various publications including the Ministry of Education...

The city of Smyrna could be defended in multiple ways if it would be confined to the range perimetre of the naval guns,it had squadrons of war planes(fighters and bombers) and the ground is not unfavourable(actually it could be altered to suit defensive purposes) and in such eventuality the Turkish part of the city would be evacuated something that would simplify defense and shorten the lines as well.But most important,Venizelos' intention to bargain with Kemal in 1921 with the agreement of the British....that is why the pivotal point of the story is Venizelos to be PM in 1921 and try to eliminate the causes of his failure OTL in the elections of 1920

Von Adler,
The position of the Italians was ambivelant in this matter;If you remember reading that they had stormed out of the conference room when French and English representatives awarded the Vilaeti of Smyrna to the Greeks since the were claiming it for some time;that had confined the Italians in the territory south of Smyrna,Attalia(later allowed Turkish raiders to pass through their controls to attack Greek positions in Smyrna...) and here the fact that king Alexander is alive is crucial(the monkey bite was a pretence...);it would maintain allied support and keep Italians in check...I agree about the white Russians(not only for Smyrna but for Ionia as well) and if units of general Vraggel came to Greece they could easily substitute units fighting continuously since 1912 with the promise of land in Ionia and possibly property in the city of Smyrna.
 
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This is of interest to me, because my ATL relies on Greece getting the coastal areas of Turkey, along with Soviet and French-Syrian territorial gains. I can quite see Turkey going to war over it all. But in the face of a three-front war, could Turkey do anything other than capitulate?
 
Except they weren't. Adrianople was the area in which the Greeks had the highest population, and even here they were outnumbered by Muslims. Constantinople had a Muslim majority by this time and Smyrna had a solid Muslim majority. The cities themselves tended to be a bit more equal but the countryside was quite solidly Muslim (source). So you have the Greeks holding territory that is mainly populated by people who are hostile, and with the Turkish nationalists gaining strength in the inland of Anatolia. The chances of them holding Smyrna are practically nil, and they could only hold Constantinople and Thrace by mass ethnic cleansing, which would ensure a permanently hostile Turkish state that may grow in terms of power vis-a-vis the Greek state. An unenviable situation to say the least.

I'm basing my view for Thrace off of the statistics (from the Ottomans and the Ecumenical Patriarchate) listed on wikipedia here - according to the Ottoman statistics there, Thrace was 46% Turkish 39% Greek.)

I'm also a bit dubious about the veracity of 1914 Ottoman statistics about Greek populations given the political climate then - after all, the Greek Genocide also started in 1914. Even if that somehow didn't affect the results, presumably there'd be more political pressure to minimize minority numbers.
 
This is of interest to me, because my ATL relies on Greece getting the coastal areas of Turkey, along with Soviet and French-Syrian territorial gains. I can quite see Turkey going to war over it all. But in the face of a three-front war, could Turkey do anything other than capitulate?

Not that I want to burst your little bubble but Turkey did fight a three front war IOTL just to gain its independence and managed to beat them in their own terrain. They defeated the Greeks in the west, the Armenians in the northeast and the French in the southeast. As for Britain involving itself, yeah its government made promises beforehand to the Greeks but there would be little appetite trying to help the French, Greeks and Armenians bite off more than they could chew.
 
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