Actually, if a serious scandal had come out(such as the TL where Lewinsky has a baby, though that has Phil Gramm become President)Clinton could be defeated. There was another TL where Powell ran as Independent, taking the election to the House which elected Dole. On another site, I saw a TL (probably ASB)that has a better-handled shutdown resulting in Dole being elected.
I think Dole would be a two-term president unless in 2000 he retires for Kemp. Either way, Iraq would probably never happen. Maybe OBL would be taken out before 9/11 but that's unlikely.